This is the Final Prediction of Corona Virus Outbreak in Various Countries in the World

This is the Final Prediction of Corona Virus Outbreak in Various Countries in the World

The method of determining prediction of a pandemic life cycle pattern is expected to appear as an S-shaped curve.

This pattern along with the dynamics that underlie pandemic conditions in various regions such as population growth, diffusion of new technologies, and infectious diseases. Have also been theoretically established in the mathematical model used.

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These mathematical models include logistic models that describe general life cycle phenomena and SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) models that describe the spread of infectious diseases. In research by SUTD, the two models combine two parameters whose values ​​determine the shape of a particular life cycle curve.

Model parameters for a country can be regressed based on actual data from that country. Regression models are used to estimate the full life cycle of a pandemic and to plot the life cycle curve.

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With the estimated full life cycle curve, it will be easier to see which pandemic phase the country is experiencing, when the turning point occurs, and when the pandemic will end.

Pandemic prediction

The latest predictions from SUTD include three alternative estimates of the end of the pandemic in sequence, namely:

  • The time when the last estimated case was identified
  • The time when 99% of the total estimated cases have been identified
  • The time when 97% of the cases that were escalated were identified

Based on the latest predictions until Sunday (4/25/2020) on the SUTD page, in general, it is estimated that the corona virus pandemic in the world will end 97% on May 29, 2020 and 100% on December 8, 2020.

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The end of the 97% pandemic is the time when the case curve begins to enter the green area on the graph. Meanwhile, for each country, here are the final estimates of the pandemic in several countries based on data up to Monday (4/26/2020)

German

The end of the 97% corona virus pandemic is predicted to occur on May 3, 2020 in Germany. While the end of the 100% pandemic is expected to occur on August 25, 2020.

France

In France, the end of the 97% corona virus pandemic is predicted to occur on May 6, 2020. While the end of the 100% pandemic is expected to occur on August 5, 2020.

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Spanish

The end of the 97% corona virus pandemic is predicted to occur on May 4, 2020 in Spain. While the end of the 100% pandemic is expected to occur on August 7, 2020.

Australia

In Australia, the end of the 97% corona virus pandemic is predicted to occur on May 4, 2020. While the end of the 100% pandemic is expected to occur on August 7, 2020.
Japan

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The end of the 97% corona virus pandemic is predicted to occur on May 18, 2020 in Japan. While the end of the 100% pandemic is expected to occur on September 26, 2020.

The Philippines

In the Philippines, the end of the 97% corona virus pandemic is predicted to occur on May 9, 2020. While the end of the 100% pandemic is expected to occur on July 2, 2020.
Malaysia

The end of the 97% corona virus pandemic is predicted to occur on May 7, 2020 in Malaysia. While the end of the 100% pandemic is expected to occur on July 6, 2020.

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United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates is estimated to have experienced a turning point on April 17, 2020. The end of the pandemic 97% is predicted to occur on May 11, 2020 with the end of the pandemic 100% on June 22, 2020.

Saudi Arabia

On April 26, it is estimated that the turning point of the coorna virus pandemic was experienced by Saudi Arabia. While the end of the 97% corona virus pandemic is predicted to occur on May 22, 2020 and the end of the 100% pandemic on July 11, 2020.

Also Read: Corona Indonesia Update, April 26: 8,882 total cases, 1,107 recovered, 743 dead

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Italy

The end of the 97% corona virus pandemic is predicted to occur on May 8, 2020 in Italy. Meanwhile, the end of the 100% pandemic is expected to occur on August 25, 2020.

English

In the UK, the end of the 97% corona virus pandemic is predicted to occur on May 16, 2020. While the end of the 100% pandemic is expected to occur on August 14, 2020.

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India

In India, the turning point is estimated to have occurred on 18 April 2020. The end of the pandemic 97% is predicted to occur on 15 May 2020 and the end of the 100% pandemic on 13 July 2020.

Turkey

The turning point of the corona outbreak in Turkey is estimated to have occurred on April 14, 2020. The end of the pandemic 97% is predicted to occur on May 17, 2020 and the end of the pandemic 100% on August 12, 2020.

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