It Is Predicted The Rupiah Will Touch Rp. 20 Thousand Per Dollar Corona Impact

The Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) revealed that the worst case scenario of the rupiah exchange rate could reach a range of Rp. 17,500 to Rp. 20 thousand per US dollar this year. This scenario arises due to heavy economic pressure amid the spread of the corona virus virus or covid-19.

“We assume the macro assumptions of this scenario to prevent this from happening,” said Minister of Finance and Chairman of the KSSK Sri Mulyani Indrawati in a video conference on Wednesday (1/4).

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Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI) and KSSK Member Perry Warjiyo said the rupiah exchange rate projection was a step forward in preparation of the KSSK to anticipate the worst effects of the corona pandemic pressure.

“This heavy scenario is forward looking as an anticipation to prevent it from happening, so that the severe scenario does not occur. Then the exchange rate of Rp. 17,500 to Rp. 20 thousand per US dollar will be anticipated so that it does not happen,” he stressed.

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Furthermore, Perry ensured that the rupiah exchange rate was still maintained. At present, the rupiah is in the range of IDR 16,400 per US dollar in the spot market trading.

Perry claims this happens because the national central bank is always in the market through three forms of intervention so that the exchange rate of Garuda does not fall deeper.

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The intervention was carried out in the spot market trading, DNDF, to the purchase of government bonds that were released by foreigners. “The current Rupiah is sufficient,” he said.

Selain intervensi, BI juga menambah likuiditas di perbankan melalui pelonggaran batas cadangan kas bank di bank sentral nasional atau dikenal dengan Giro Wajib Minimum (GWM). Dari pelonggaran, setidaknya BI menambah likuiditas ke bank sebanyak Rp74 triliun dalam denominasi rupiah dan US$3,2 miliar dalam denominasi valuta asing.

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Berbagai upaya ini dilakukan guna menstabilkan nilai tukar rupiah yang kemungkinan masih bergerak fluktuatif karena besarnya aliran modal asing yang keluar (capital outflow) dari Indonesia. BI mencatat dana asing yang keluar mencapai Rp167,9 triliun pada periode 20 Januari sampai 30 Maret 2020.

“Sebagian besar di SBN Rp153,4 triliun dan saham Rp13,4 triliun. Pembalikan modal ini terjadi di seluruh dunia, termasuk Indonesia sehingga rupiah melemah,” tutur Perry.

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Secara total, BI sudah membeli SBN dengan nilai mencapai Rp166 triliun. Sedangkan bila digabung dengan intervensi penambahan likuiditas ke bank, intervensi sudah hampir Rp300 triliun.

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Di sisi lain, KSSK turut memaparkan beberapa asumsi makro dalam skenario terburuk, seperti pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia minus 0,4 persen sampai 2,3 persen. Harga minyak mentah Indonesia (ICP) US$31 sampai US$38 per barel dan inflasi 3,9 persen sampai 5,1 persen pada tahun ini.

Seluruhnya turun jauh dari asumsi makro di APBN 2020, di mana asumsi rupiah sebesar Rp14.400 per dolar AS dan pertumbuhan ekonomi 5,3 persen. Sementara ICP US$63 per barel dan inflasi 3,1 persen.

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